‘Kraken’ Covid-19 variant: South African health experts urge caution and caution against social media hysteria

The Kraken has arrived, but there is nothing to worry from this latest strain of the Covid-19 virus – and don’t spread alarm on social media.

That’s the word from some of the country’s leading Covid-19 specialists, who unanimously concur that, despite its terrifying mythological connotation (a massive mythical sea monster thought to appear off the coast of Norway), South Africans have nothing to fear from the Kraken Covid-19 version.

Joe Phaahla, Minister of Health, stated that his agency and its organisations have been watching events surrounding Covid-19 internationally since limitations were lifted in June 2022.

The Network for Genomic Monitoring of South Africa, located at Stellenbosch University, has also been doing genomic surveillance.

When compared to November 2022, there was a 25% (14.5 million) rise in new cases and a 12% (46 600) increase in fatalities recorded in December. Japan, South Korea, the United States, China, and Brazil accounted for 70% of the new cases.

New cases decreased in all of the aforementioned nations except China, where cases surged by 45% and fatalities jumped by 48% in the final week of December. The scenario originally created widespread alarm around the world, notably among South Africans.

There are 12 countries/regions that need a negative PCR test that is less than 48 hours old for Chinese travellers. These countries include the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Taiwan, the Philippines, Spain, Italy, India, Israel, and Japan. Malaysia and South Korea demand a PCR test and further testing upon arrival, while Morocco has put an absolute ban on Chinese visitors.

Other nations’ positions have not altered, implying that no additional measures have been implemented, although Germany, New Zealand, and South Africa have explicitly stated that no new restrictions would be enforced.

At this point, experts know that the SARS-CoV-2 variety of concern that is still dominating throughout the world (between 97% and 98%) is Omicron.

Since dominating the Covid-19 environment in late 2021, Omicron has had almost 100 sub-variants. While the numerous sub-variants have demonstrated varying levels of transmissibility, there has been no discernible variation in the severity of sickness.

The key cause for China’s reported overcrowded health facilities and high number of deaths is the recent relaxation of regulations, which has allowed people to move freely after extended periods of restriction. China’s large population, limited natural immunity, and reportedly low vaccination rates, particularly in small towns and rural regions, have aggravated the issue.

“We believe that the fact that the dominant variant of concern in China and the world remains Omicron, as well as the fact that the immunity of South Africans from vaccination and natural immunity is still strong, puts us in a better position and means we are less risk.

“That is why we have not seen any changes in rates of infection, hospital admissions and deaths. We have consulted the ministerial advisory committees and the World Health Organisation, and in both cases the advice has been that there is no need to impose travel restrictions on any country, including China, and that we do not need to reimpose any internal restrictions,” Phaahla said.

However, South Africa and many other nations across the world have been advised to raise the rate of Covid-19 testing and encourage persons who exhibit the disease’s known symptoms to get tested.

Shabir Madhi, Professor of Vaccinology at Wits University, advised South Africans not to worry.

“It is unclear what value exists in publicising something on social media which is not clinically relevant,” he said.

“We need to become more circumspect about sharing on Twitter with regard to what remains an ever-evolving variant for the past year – with repeated claims of greater transmissibility –which generally has remained clinically irrelevant in settings with high levels of immunity against severe disease. Alternatively, we risk creating unnecessary public panic and confusion. The data from the US, where XBB.1.5 dominates, does not show any major upswing in hospitalisation,“ Madhi said.

“In SA, Covid hospitalisation still occurs, although at low rates, which is expected. Even if XBB.1.5 is more transmissible and more able to evade antibody-neutralising activity, there is no indication that it is evading T-cell immunity, which mediates protection against severe disease. Furthermore, in SA, where almost two-thirds of the population was infected with BA.1 (the original Omicron variant), such infection confers protection against XBB.1.5, and even more so in people who have also been vaccinated,” he said.

Professor Jeffrey Mphahlele, Deputy Vice-Chancellor for Research and Innovation at North-West University and a member of the ministerial advisory committee on vaccines, agreed that there was no need for travel restrictions for citizens of any country visiting South Africa, and that reintroducing internal restrictions should not even be considered.

“The world is in a different phase of the pandemic, and we should learn how to live with the virus. XBB.1.5 will not be the last variant to emerge. More variants are likely to be seen in future, and it would not make sense to panic every time there is the emergence of a novel variant,” he said.

Professor Hannelie Meyer of Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University’s SA Vaccination and Immunisation Centre agreed that there was no need to panic.

“Data on this new sub-variant is still limited, but there is currently no evidence of its ability to cause severe disease or lead to increased hospital admissions or deaths. Also, in South Africa we currently still have good population immunity from previous infection and vaccination,” she said.

Meyer stated that whether or not to wear a mask should be a personal choice.

“Most importantly, we need to remain vigilant, because the virus is still circulating and people are still getting Covid-19. Get vaccinated if you have not received the vaccine yet, and get a booster if you are eligible for a booster. People must take responsibility for their own health,” she added.

Professor Salim Abdool Karim, a leading epidemiologist, stated that the newest Covid-19 variation XBB.1.5 was not necessarily one to be concerned about, but rather an Omicron mutation.

“Because Omicron had so many mutations, we now have XBB.1.5.”

According to Abdool Karim, the head of the Centre for the Aids Programme of Research in South Africa, the original Omicron version began prevailing in South Africa between December 2021 and January 2022.

The country then saw BA4 and BA5 mutations of Omicron in May and June of last year. According to him, XBB.1.5 is related to BA5 and descended from this variety.

However, Abdool Karim cautioned that new Covid-19 mutations generally propagate quicker than older versions.

“If they don’t, then they will be unable to be dominant, and as an example Delta has to spread faster than Beta in order for it to take over. Because it spreads faster, it means that it is more infectious, and because it transmits faster, it infects more people more quickly.”

He went on to say that the elderly should be given booster doses so that they have more antibodies to offer better protection against the virus.

Abdool Karim also cautioned against labelling XBB.1.5 as the “Kraken” variation, calling it “scaremongering.”

Main Image: Bloomberg

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